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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends an official event as a new opinion poll shows him leading ahead of the October presidential election. |
Lula Maintains Lead Over Flavio Bolsonaro in New Brazil Election Poll
SAO PAULO — July 24, 2026
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to lead opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the latest opinion poll ahead of the country's presidential election in October, according to a new Datafolha survey released on Friday.
The poll suggests Lula would win a potential second-round runoff with 48% of voter support, compared with 43% for Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The result is slightly stronger for Lula than a June survey, which showed him leading by 47% to 43%.
In a first-round voting scenario, Lula received 40% support, while Flavio Bolsonaro followed with 32%. Governor Ronaldo Caiado was backed by 4% of respondents, while Governors Romeu Zema and Renan Santos each received 3%.
Brazil's election system requires a candidate to secure more than 50% of valid votes to win outright. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the top two candidates advance to a runoff election.
The survey comes during a period of political tension within the Bolsonaro family. Flavio Bolsonaro recently faced public criticism from former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro after comments about her role in party affairs. He later issued a public apology.
The poll was also conducted after the United States announced a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods, citing what it described as unfair trade practices. Brazil's government has rejected those allegations.
Datafolha interviewed 2,004 people between July 22 and July 23. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
With the election approaching, opinion polls continue to provide an early indication of voter sentiment, although public support may change as campaigning intensifies in the coming months.
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